Harvest 2017 prices as of noon on June 20, 2017 are as follows:
SWW @ $219.22/MT ($5.97/bu),  HRW @ $216.79/MT ($5.90/bu)
HRS @ $263.46/MT ($7.17/bu),  SRW @ $216.79/MT ($5.90/bu)

Marketing Education
Technical Analysis: Trends

This week we will follow through on an actual trading strategy using the daily soybean chart. In this chart  you are looking at a weekly soybean chart from last week, showing a very well defined downtrend line which is currently around the $11.80 - $12 price on the chart.

This trend line has been in place since 2011 and a significant breach of this trend could indicate a reversal with higher prices going forward.

From this chart we will zoom in on a day chart for the same period. This will allow us to set up for our trade.

This chart is the same time frame as the weekly chart above, but each bar represents only one day instead of one week. As you can see, the trend line which has been in place for at least six years will prove to be major resistance.

As you can see, the resistance worked quite well and we will need to close at least 20 cents above the line before I would consider it a trend break.
 
The first rule of thumb when trend following is to trade with the trend. This means that there are two possible ways you may use this trend line to trade this chart. The first would be a farmer who is looking for an ideal price to sell some or all of his physical crop, and the second way would involve selling short the futures contract to lock in a good price.  
 
In this case, it would be advisable for the farmer to look at the $12 area as a target to sell some of his crops or utilize the futures markets to short a portion of his crop with futures. Given the rules of trading it would seem likely that this area would provide serious trouble and the market would likely pull back before the next attempt was made at the trend-line. 
 
If the prices of the lead month futures were to close significantly higher than the trend line, it would be a signal that the trend is changing from bearish to bullish and based on the individuals plan, they would view the market as getting stronger over time and adjust their marketing plan to expect higher prices going forward. This may cause the farmer to hold off on selling all of their production due to the technical indicators suggesting higher prices since the market is now trading in a bullish tone.
 
Bottom line is to follow the trend and sell at overhead resistance in a bear market and expect higher prices in a bull market.•

Feedback is important.  If you find this education series beneficial, please contact Marty Hibbs, Grain Merchandiser at mhibbs@gfo.ca.

DISCLAIMER: This information has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by the author, by Grain Farmers of Ontario, or by any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness and Grain Farmers of Ontario accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of same. •

As a response to declining Bobolink and Eastern Meadowlark populations across the province, the Ontario Soil and Crop Improvement Association (OSCIA) has teamed up with researchers to launch an innovative, citizen-science platform for farmers to record sightings of these two species at risk. GrassLander is ideal for producers who work agricultural land that includes pastures, meadows, native grasslands, restored grasslands, hayfields, or any other agricultural grassland spaces.

GrassLander, a convenient web-based map, gives Ontario farmers the ability to easily collect data on grassland bird behaviour. This valuable data will contribute to a better scientific understanding of population trends that can help to inform science-based decision-making.

For more information on GrassLander or to get involved and start recording your sightings, visit www.ontariograsslander.ca or get in touch with OSCIA directly at grasslander@ontariosoilcrop.org. •

A variety of workshops and webinars are offered at no cost by the Ontario Soil and Crop Improvement Association (OSCIA) as part of Growing Forward 2 (GF2) to assist Ontario farm businesses in identifying strengths and weaknesses in a variety of areas that influence the farm’s profitability, productivity and sustainability. The workshops and webinars each have a different focus and different goals. New dates have been scheduled for the ‘Growing Your Farm Profits’ and ‘Canada-Ontario Environmental Farm Plan (EFP)’ workshops from July to August. For more information, and to register, go to www.ontariosoilcrop.org/oscia-programs/workshops-webinars/. •

Spring planting was delayed in many parts of the province – some farmers just wrapped up their planting this week and in eastern Ontario some fields remain too wet too plant. Grain Farmers of Ontario is once again recognizing the hard work and long hours put in by our farmer-members with the ‘Thank a Grain Farmer’ contest. Three winners were chosen at random from subscribers to the Bottom Line e-newsletter. The first winners were presented with their Good in Every Grain prize pack along with dinner on their farm this week.

Jim and Anne Duffy farm 900 acres in Sombra (District 3 Lambton). They have been farming since 1973. It’s a true family business with two of their three sons working on the farm as well as a grandson-in-law who runs tractors with them. •

Grain Farmers of Ontario is reaching out to radio stations and newspapers to increase our presence in rural areas. You can learn more about this initiative in this week’s episode of Inside Grain Farmers of Ontario. •

Grain Farmers of Ontario has set new license fees, effective July 1, 2017. Please note there has been a reduction in fees from 2016. All grain dealers have been notified of this change. Farmer-members with questions regarding the new license fees can contact the office at 1-800-265-0550. •