Grain Farmers of Ontario Bottom Line E-Newsletter for December 8, 2017
 
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December 8, 2017

In this issue:

• Ontario Grain Market Commentary
• Ontario Agricultural Commodity Council meeting
• Increased ethanol mandate
• Auditor General's Report
• Market Access Secretariat meeting
• 2017 Nuffield Scholar update
• AMI Advanced Farm Management Program
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2017 cash prices as of noon on December 8, 2017 are as follows:
SWW @ $177.64/MT ($4.83/bu),  HRW @ $187.09/MT ($5.09/bu)
HRS @ $239.06/MT ($6.51/bu),   SRW @ $182.37/MT ($4.96/bu)


Marketing Education
Candlestick charting: Long legged doji

This lesson we will continue with doji’s and their significance. Taking the doji candle a step further, we realize that there is more of a story to the doji than just a case of the opening and closing being the same. Doji candles come with both long and short shadows, which can signal the power struggle that was evident while the candle was being formed. The doji with a long shadow appearing at the top of a move indicates that the bulls tried unsuccessfully to drive prices higher into new high territory but failed to sustain the move. This is a signal that the resistance was met with much selling, and a possible top is imminent. Likewise, if the long shadow doji appears at the bottom of a move, it tells me that the bears tried to push prices well into new low territory but the result was strong buying coming in to offset the sellers. Again, this would be a potential sign that a reversal is looming. Either way, the doji is doing its job by warning the analyst that caution should be taken, and that a reversal is very possible in the next few sessions.

Notice the long legged doji candles in this image. In each case, there was a minor difference in the close of each. The first image is a textbook doji with the same opening and closing price. The black or solid candle beside it is also a long legged doji, but the solid colour suggests that it closed lower than it opened (although by a very small margin). The third image is also a long legged doji, but in this case the closing was ever so slightly higher than the opening.
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Although they can all be classified as textbook doji candles, the candles on the right show that the close and open were not identical. This may also have some impact on the outcome of the next series of candles.
 
In our next lesson, we will discuss the other doji candles and their meaning and importance. •

 

 

 

Feedback is important.  If you find this education series beneficial, please contact Marty Hibbs, Grain Merchandiser at mhibbs@gfo.ca.

DISCLAIMER: This information has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by the author, by Grain Farmers of Ontario, or by any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness and Grain Farmers of Ontario accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of same. •

 

 

 

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Ontario Agricultural Commodity Council meeting

A meeting of the Ontario Agricultural Commodity Council took place this week. Jeff Leal. Minister of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, spoke with the group about the government’s commitment to making Ontario an agriculture powerhouse, including a commitment to a seamless implementation of the Canadian Agriculture Partnership and a review of Business Risk Management programming.

The Council is a coalition of non supply managed agricultural commodity organizations registered in Ontario. Kevin Armstrong, director for District 7 (Waterloo, Oxford), and Mark Huston, director for District 2 (Kent), represent Grain Farmers of Ontario. •
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Increased ethanol mandate

Grain Farmers of Ontario applauds the Ontario Government for putting forward a proposal to increase the ethanol mandate in the province. The government of Ontario released its proposed amendments to the Ethanol in Gasoline regulation on the Ontario Environmental Bill of Rights on November 29. The proposal includes an increase to the mandate for ethanol in regular grade gasoline from 5% to 10% by 2020.

Corn ethanol produced in Ontario increases market opportunities for local farmers. It is also an effective way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cars on the road and the ethanol industry generates jobs and economic activity for the province.

The government’s proposed amendments to the Ethanol in Gasoline regulation have been posted for review and comment and Grain Farmers of Ontario will be making a submission to support the increased use of ethanol. •

 

 

 

Auditor General's Report

The Office of the Auditor General of Ontario released its 2017 Annual Report this week. Included in the report was a review of Farm Support Programs administered by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs. The audit found that “the Ministry had processes in place to design farm-support programs in compliance with relevant legislation, regulations, agreements and policies. However, the programs are not fully effective in ensuring support for farmers to manage their risks.”
 
In a release responding to the report, Minister Jeff Leal said, “We are making significant progress in our efforts to modernize BRM programming so that it is timely, simple and predictable while also encouraging greater participation… While existing BRM programming effectively meets most of the needs of our producers, improvements should be made to better address the nature of supports when producers face prolonged challenges, such as ongoing droughts or wide spread flooding. The scope of our ongoing BRM review is working to address this concern.”
 
Grain Farmers of Ontario, as a member of the AgGrowth Coalition, is working towards comprehensive reform of business risk management programming for Canadian farmers to better address the risks and opportunities inherent in our farmer-members’ businesses. The coalition is seeking a meaningful role in the national BRM review process and is requesting that governments engage the coalition and its members throughout the review process at all levels. •
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Market Access Secretariat meeting

On Thursday, the Federal Market Access Team composing of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, and Global Affairs Canada held their annual Market Access Secretariat meeting. The meeting brings together representatives from all of the major agriculture organizations across the country to discuss market access challenges. This year’s meeting focused on the renegotiation of NAFTA, the refocused Trans-Pacific Partnership, as well as discussions with China on a potential Free Trade Agreement. •

 

 

 

2017 Nuffield Scholar update

Nicole Mackellar, 2017 Nuffield Canada Scholar and manager of market development at Grain Farmers of Ontario, recently returned home from three weeks of study travel to Australia. Mackellar travelled throughout southwestern and southeastern Australia including the islands of King Island and Tasmania as part of her independent research for her Nuffield program. Mackellar met with farmers, farmer associations, companies and government to discuss how regional branding can be used to help drive consumer demand and increase utilization of commodities.

Mackellar is using her Nuffield Scholarship to study the possibilities for branding of commodities that are further processed into ingredients. She will use the information rom her study travel to help determine how regional branding can be used to help increase further demand for Ontario grain and oilseed products. •
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AMI Advanced Farm Management Program

The Agri-Food Management Institute held the first session of this winter’s Advanced Farm Management Program (AFMP). The program, specific to grain and oilseed farmers, was held in Elmhurst. Twenty farmers are participating in the program which will include four additional sessions over the next few months. At the end of the program, farmers will have a completed Management Action Plan (MAP) for their farm business plus additional skills, knowledge, and insights to effectively implement it. Grain Farmers of Ontario is a supporter of the AFMP and pays travel expenses for farmer-members who complete the program. •
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